Abstract
We studied the possible role of the subways in the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in New York City during late February and March 2020. Data on cases and hospitalizations, along with phylogenetic analyses of viral isolates, demonstrate rapid community transmission throughout all five boroughs within days. The near collapse of subway ridership during the second week of March was followed within 1–2 weeks by the flattening of COVID-19 incidence curve. We observed persistently high entry into stations located along the subway line serving a principal hotspot of infection in Queens. We used smartphone tracking data to estimate the volume of subway visits originating from each zip code tabulation area (ZCTA). Across ZCTAs, the estimated volume of subway visits on March 16 was strongly predictive of subsequent COVID-19 incidence during April 1–8. In a spatial analysis, we distinguished between the conventional notion of geographic contiguity and a novel notion of contiguity along subway lines. We found that the March 16 subway-visit volume in subway-contiguous ZCTAs had an increasing effect on COVID-19 incidence during April 1–8 as we enlarged the radius of influence up to 5 connected subway stops. By contrast, the March 31 cumulative incidence of COVID-19 in geographically-contiguous ZCTAs had an increasing effect on subsequent COVID-19 incidence as we expanded the radius up to three connected ZCTAs. The combined evidence points to the initial citywide dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 via a subway-based network, followed by percolation of new infections within local hotspots.
Highlights
An accurate, thorough understanding of the rapid, widespread propagation of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the early phase of the massive outbreak in New York City is crucial to the successful control of future pandemic threats.To that end, we test three main hypotheses here
We relied on the Stata program geoinpoly [20], which uses a raycasting algorithm to determine whether a point is contained in a polygon, to identify the unique census block groups (CBGs) containing each subway station
We further investigated the origins of those smartphone devices whose destination CBGs contained one of the six key stations within the Queens-Elmhurst hot spot
Summary
Thorough understanding of the rapid, widespread propagation of SARS-CoV-2 infection during the early phase of the massive outbreak in New York City is crucial to the successful control of future pandemic threats.To that end, we test three main hypotheses here. New York City’s extensive public transport system, its subways, played a critical role in the widespread dissemination of SARS-CoV-2 infection throughout the city during the end of February and the beginning of March 2020. The ensuing marked decline in subway use was an important vehicle by which the public’s growing perception of risk was translated into reduced community transmission of the virus. Those areas with an attenuated decline in subway use, we posit, subsequently became the loci for high-density clusters of viral infection in late March 2020.
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