Critical review of the analysis of competing hypotheses technique: lessons for the intelligence community

Abstract

ABSTRACT Intelligence communities regularly produce important assessments that inform policymakers. The Analysis of Competing Hypotheses technique (ACH) is one of the most widely-touted methods for improving the accuracy of those assessments. But does ACH work? This critical review identified seven articles describing six experiments testing ACH. The results indicate ACH – as a whole – has little to no overall benefit on judgment quality, and may even harm it, even though some aspects of ACH might be beneficial. We consequently discourage intelligence organizations from mandating the training or use of ACH, and we recommend greater integration of science into intelligence practices in general.