Critical Loads Exceedances in Germany and their Dependence on the Scale of Input Data

Abstract

Critical load exceedances have been used as an effects-related parameter for guiding international air emission control negotiations. High-resolution critical load data are combined with low-resolution deposition data.This article shows that doing so systematicallyunderestimates `true' critical load exceedances as obtainedfrom combining critical load and deposition data of identicalhigh spatial resolution. 95th percentile critical loadexceedances in EMEP grids based on high resolution depositiondata are 60 and 150% higher (mean values for nutrientnitrogen and acidity, respectively) than critical loadexceedances based on the low resolution EMEP depositionmodel. The latter are used in international negotiations. Differences in individual EMEP grid squares vary betweeninsignificantly different from zero and 340%, depending onregional deposition and critical load characteristics andcritical load types (nutrient nitrogen versus acidity).Exceedances based on high-resolution deposition values arealso compared to EMEP grid averages of these values forforests only. This comparison excludes the effect ofsystematically higher depositions to forests. Still, thescale difference of (averaged, low-resolution) deposition and(high-resolution) critical loads data yields underestimatesof the 95th percentiles by on average ca. 20%.These systematic errors due to the scale dependence should beborne in mind when interpreting effects of internationalemission control measures.