Critical Infrastructure Disruption Scenarios Analyses via Simulation

Abstract

The ultimate target of Modelling and Simulation (M&S) activities in the field of CIP is to provide Models, Methodologies and tools to help in the analysis of different crisis’ scenarios and, subsequently, in crisis management decision making. A CIs’ disruptions scenario is simply a sequence of random events following a well-defined chronological order. Generally, each identified scenario produces a set of consequences which is a function of: the initiating event, the concerned CIs and the geo-organizational context of the disrupted CIs. Formal sciences represent the reality of our surrounding world. But formal sciences are imperfect and what we call “reality” is the projection of the inaccessible “Reality” on our world. This projection is the only reality we are talking about in formal sciences. Subsequently, formal sciences construct objects in which small parts of the sensible reality are grasped and formalized. These objects can be called “models”. We are limiting our interest here to formal sciences and engineering activities that cover both conceptual and phenomenological modelling processes. Models are first validated before being admitted in the construction of a global model of the sensible reality. Regarding our focus on crisis scenarios modelling, simulation and analysis (MS&A), engineers’ ambition is to simulate not only independent isolated phenomenon but also interacting multi-physic multi-scale phenomenon.