Critical Geography — the Strategic Influence of Water in Central Asia

Abstract

This chapter assesses the geostrategic and geopolitical implications of water shortages in Central Asia and argues that resource scarcity or competition cannot be separated from other regional realities. On-again, off-again relations between Central Asian states, as well as the so-called war on terrorism, bear significant implications for the region. Thus, the convention of defining Central Asia as a grouping of five states is increasingly less relevant for policy making and sound strategic analysis. Central Asia is linked to the entire Caspian basin, the South Caucasus, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran, Turkey, and China’s Xinjiang province. Equally, the long- term interests of Russia and the United States now play into the complex realities of Central Asia. Specifically regarding water shortages, a number of vulnerability issues involving so-called “non-traditional” security present serious long-term challenges to the stability of the region. The chapter argues that there are crucial differences between threats and vulnerabilities, distinguishes between the two, and suggests relevant policy applications for the Central Asian states. The analysis includes a review of theoretical models that have been proposed in research. Specifically, this review addresses what have been argued as “trigger mechanisms” that can unleash violent conflict, create socio economic disparity, and induce long-term insecurity, and provides possible pathways for geostrategic solutions and means to reduce water resource tensions.