Abstract
The claims in the Royal College of Physicians' report Smoking and HealthNow are examined with reference to certain secular changes in mortality for British doctors as compared with those for the general population. The data as presented are found to exhibit geographical and populational restrictions, age restrictions, and unexpected changes in classification of diseases; they also omit a crucial time period and assume certain unverified trends in smoking habits. The statements and claims of the Royal College of Physicians are not supported by the re-examination of certain data included in the report, and by an analysis of pertinent data that were omitted. The appraisal of the full data illustrates the hazards of drawing firm conclusions from secular changes in death-rates, and raises doubts that the Royal College of Physicians' report contains the " strongest evidence there is of the value of giving up cigarettes ".
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