Criteria Model of Sustainable Development of Global Processes. Electric Power Consumption

Abstract

A new approach is proposed for the mathematical description of the global processes trends in the world development, such as the electric power production, the Earth population increase, and the electric power consumption per capita. It is shown that these processes are well described by equations obtained in solving differential models with increase rates exponentially decaying in time. These models are fully consistent with the currently accepted doctrine of the world system sustainable development, aimed at meeting the population’s growing needs in electric power, at the development of energy saving technologies and the preservation of environmental safety. We identified the similarity of the global processes under study. Their dynamics are characterized by different speeds. At the beginning, before the inflection point, there is a period of intensive development with rapid increase. After the inflection point, the increase rates slow down, but the volumes increase significantly and gradual saturation occurs. It is shown that the Earth population increase passed the inflection point in 1990 and is 29 years ahead of the global electric power production increase. But the increase rate of the electric power production is significantly higher. This creates a positive trend for the increase of the annual level of electric power consumption by the population. The obtained mathematical models are in good agreement with the statistical data from 1960 to the present and have high values of the determination coefficient. Based on the similarity of the studied global processes, a generalization of their descriptions was carried out in one criteria model. This model allows us to visually show the processes features and their position on the overall trajectory of the world system sustainable development. With its help, it is possible to compare the dynamics of processes, to carry out their perspective and retrospective analysis. The obtained criteria model has a high degree of generalization and can be used to describe processes of different nature with inertial character of development and with increase rates exponentially decaying in time.