Crisis, uncertainty and urgency: processes of learning and emulation in tax policy making

Abstract

This article examines how ideational factors shape policy making during crisis conditions. Crises can generate ‘problem uncertainty’, in which policymakers are uncertain about the nature of policy problems. Existing studies have linked such conditions to processes of policy learning. Yet crises can also trigger ‘policy urgency’, where policymakers’ preference for immediate policy action is paramount. This study suggests that bounded emulation, in which policymakers copy available solutions without learning, is related to perceptions of policy urgency. To probe the plausibility of the framework the study conducts a comparative analysis of value-added tax reform in Ontario and British Columbia, drawing on 41 semi-structured interviews, policy documents and news articles. The study finds that high uncertainty and moderate urgency facilitated policy learning in Ontario, while moderate uncertainty and high urgency fostered bounded emulation in British Columbia. The article identifies the implications of the findings for future research on ideas and policy change.