Crisis, Rhetoric and Right-Wing Populist Incumbency: An Analysis of Donald Trump's Tweets and Press Briefings

Corina Lacatus,Gustav Meibauer

doi:10.1017/gov.2021.34

Corina Lacatus, Gustav Meibauer

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1017/gov.2021.34

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Abstract

AbstractHow do right-wing-populist incumbents navigate rhetorical strategic choices when they seek to manage external crises? Relevant literature has paid increasing attention to the role of ‘crisis’ in boosting the electoral success of right-wing populist candidates. We know a lot less about the rhetorical strategies used by right-wing populist incumbents seeking re-election. We draw on literatures on populism, crisis management and political rhetoric to conceptualize the rhetorical strategic choices of right-wing populist incumbents in times of crisis. We propose a framework for the choice of rhetorical strategy available to right-wing populist incumbents and illustrate it with a qualitative content analysis of Trump's tweets and White House press briefings during the first months of the COVID-19 pandemic. We find limited rhetorical adaptation to crisis and high degrees of continuity with previous rhetoric grounded in right-wing populism. This challenges prevalent assumptions regarding the likelihood of incumbent rhetorical flexibility in the face of crisis.

Highlights

How do right-wing-populist incumbents navigate rhetorical strategic choices when they seek to manage external crises? Relevant literature has paid increasing attention to the role of ‘crisis’ in boosting the electoral success of right-wing populist candidates
How does the advent of a crisis affect the rhetorical strategy of populist incumbents? Contrary to literatures on political rhetoric and crisis management, we suggest that populist incumbents cannot flexibly adapt their rhetorical strategy to large-scale, external crises
We draw on literatures on populism, crisis management, electoral behaviour and political rhetoric to conceptualize the rhetorical strategic choices of right-wing populist incumbents in times of crisis

Summary

Corina Lacatus and Gustav Meibauer

Carreras 2017; Handlin 2018; Homolar and Scholz 2019; Moffitt 2015; Stavrakakis et al 2018). Contrary to literatures on political rhetoric and crisis management, we suggest that populist incumbents cannot flexibly adapt their rhetorical strategy to large-scale, external crises. We argue below that populist incumbents may be limited by two factors: underlying political ideas and voter expectations that incentivize a ‘homestyle’ rhetorical strategy (Druckman et al 2020: 24) This creates a problem if appropriate responses to the crisis contradict the populist’s previous positions. Evidence of adaptation could be seen in the extent to which the standard crisis script replaced Trump’s rhetoric, or other ways in which he demonstrated responsiveness or directly engaged with the crisis and its management – for example, the rhetorical promotion of taskforces consisting of bipartisan or non-political experts (Hatcher 2020; Traber et al 2020: 48) Such adaptation was inconsistent with the ideas underlying Trump’s tried and tested rhetorical strategy, which might demobilize supporters. Key supporters might be alienated because they could no longer distinguish Trump’s anti-elite, anti-science opposition from the political establishment (Heinisch 2003:102)

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Conclusion