Crisis in Mali: Ambivalent Popular Attitudes on the Way Forward

Massa Coulibaly ,Michaël Bratton

doi:10.5334/sta.bn

Abstract

This article asks what Malians think about their country’s political crisis, including its causes, status, and possible solutions. An Afrobarometer survey of public opinion conducted at the end of 2012 finds the electorate in an apprehensive and ambivalent mood. Malians express declining faith in democracy as well as considerable (but diminishing) trust in the army. In a sign of democratic resilience, however, a large and broad majority continues to believe in elections as the best way to reconstitute a government. But only in the context of a stable and intact state – with an inclusive constitutional settlement, trustworthy civilian institutions, and engaged citizenry – will Mali be ready again for routine presidential and legislative elections.

Highlights

This article asks what Malians think about their country’s political crisis, including its causes, status, and possible solutions
Mali faces a political crisis of multiple dimensions
The political crisis in Mali displays many of the challenges highlighted in the literature on democratization in postconflict societies

Summary

Perceive a full democracy Attached to elections

Percentage of adults who offer this opinion. For question wordings, see text. *Six regions only in 2012 (Bamako, Kayes, Koulikoro, Mopti, Segou, and Sikasso). The proportion of the adult population who approve of a regime in which ‘the army comes in to govern the country’ rose from 25 per cent in 2008 (before the coup) to 34 per cent in 2012 (after the coup) (See Figure 2) These data lend credence to early press reports that at least some Malians welcomed the military takeover of government in March 2012, just weeks before the country’s national elections.. Around eight out of ten expressed ‘quite a lot’ or ‘a very great deal’ of trust in the army from 2000 onwards (the question was not asked in 2008) Their faith was somewhat shaken by the coup of March 2012 because, thereafter, popular trust fell by 20 percentage points (to 67 per cent in December 2012). When asked to contrast the trustworthiness of civilian and military institutions, Malians apparently feel

Trust the army Trust the National Assembly

Causes identified by Malian survey repondents

Findings

Solutions proposed by Malian survey repondents