Abstract
The communication of emergency information shortly before or after the manifestation of seismic hazards is a crucial part of disaster management. Crisis communication aims to protect, support and guide the public and emergency services throughout the response and recovery phase. In the case of seismic events, a fundamental query refers to how the information to be released to the public immediately after/before the seismic event affects disaster impacts and management. This paper addresses the uncertainty involved in emergency seismic information, identifies the sources, means, content and mode of emergency communication and points to the effects of different models of crisis communication on public perceptions, on emergency responses and, hence, on disaster management. A review of past experiences of seismic crisis communication strategies in earthquake-prone countries, namely Greece and Japan, reveals successes and failures in managing uncertainty, and in building public trust and improving response capacities. The findings include the importance of crisis communication in seismic disaster management, the levels/layers of uncertainty involved in emergency seismic information and how they impact risk perceptions, the public trust/mistrust effect on scientific and management institutions as well as some recommendations for seismic crisis communication strategies to minimize uncertainty and improve emergency responses.
Highlights
The short period following the initial strong tremors of a seismic event is a crisis period with a state of emergency
Relevant research queries are as follows: (a) What layers/levels of uncertainty are involved in seismic emergency information released to the public? (b) How do these uncertainty layers relate to the source, content, channels and modes of seismic crisis communication?
There are two basic challenges in managing seismic emergency information uncertainty: First, to deal with epistemic uncertainty and secondly, to deal with uncertainty involved in emergency communication
Summary
The short period (of a couple of weeks) following the initial strong tremors of a seismic event is a crisis period with a state of emergency. (b) emergency communication refers to mixed information containing facts and data on the one hand and uncertain predictions and advice on the other; (c) in emergency (and not risk) communication, decisions must be made within a narrow time constraint on the basis of imperfect or incomplete information, and these decisions may be irreversible and their outcome uncertain This mixture of certain (about the immediate past) and uncertain information referring mainly to the predicted evolution of the extreme phenomenon, secondary hazards and damaging impacts, as well as recommended responses, has an intermediary, tentative character, meaning that it is subject to constant updating. In the case of strong catastrophic earthquakes, the general public and emergency managers seek credible scientific information (i.e., announcements of magnitude, location, damage and secondary effects, the possibility of aftershocks, advice and guidelines for responsive action) among several sources: geoscience information centers, public administration agencies, health–welfare agencies, individual experts and mass and social media. The crisis might still be unfolding, the full scale of the disaster may still be unknown and the collection and elaboration of empirical data may take a long time to become useful information to be communicated with the public
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