Criminal displacement in Mexico city's metropolitan area: The case of kidnapping

Abstract

This paper proposes a broad approach to the study of criminal behavior through time using states as the units of analysis. In doing so, it argues that when a specific crime is targeted in one state, a criminal displacement effect in neighboring states can be expected. This is illustrated by the case of direct state intervention to combat kidnapping in Mexico City. A multivariate GARCH model is estimated in order to incorporate the effects of such intervention into the behavior of the conditional correlation between the kidnapping cases of Mexico City and two neighboring states. Results show a reduction in the number of kidnapping cases in Mexico City following the implementation of the security policy, along with a crime displacement effect. The findings suggest the need to redesign local and federal security policies in order to incorporate coordination mechanisms between the different levels and entities involved in combating kidnapping.