Crime Spatiotemporal Prediction With Fused Objective Function in Time Delay Neural Network

Abstract

In the criminology area, to detain the serial criminal, the forthcoming serial crime time, distance, and criminal's biography are essential keys. The main concern of this study is on the upcoming serial crime distance, time, and suspect biographies such as age and nationality. In conjunction with having time delays, the dynamic classifier, like Time Delay Neural Network (TDNN) utilized to perform nonlinear techniques-based predictions. The TDNN classifier system, like Back Propagation Through Time (BPTT) and Nonlinear Autoregressive with Exogenous Input (NARX) are two prominent examples. However, BPTT and NARX techniques are unable to identify the dynamic system by using single-activation functions due to producing lower accuracy. Hence, during the training phase, the direct minimization of the TDNN error can further enhance the single activation function. Thus, this work introduces an enhanced NARX (eNARX) model based on the proposed activation functions of SiRBF via fusion of two functions of the hyperbolic tangent (Tansig) and Radial Basis Function (RBF), in the same hidden layer. If a fusion of activation functions can affect the TDNN error minimization, then fusing of the Tansig and RBF functions can produce a precise prediction for crime spatiotemporal. To evaluate the proposed technique and compared it with existing NARX and BPTT, we utilized five time-series datasets, namely, Dow Jones Index, Monthly River flow in cubic meters per second, Daily temperature, and UKM-PDRM datasets namely, “Suspect & Capture” and “Crime Plotting.” The analysis of the results demonstrated that the proposed eNARX produce higher accuracy in comparison to other techniques of NARX and BPTT. Consequently, the proposed technique provides more effective results for the prediction of commercial serial crime