Crime, Apprehension and Clearance Rates: Panel Data Evidence from Canadian Provinces

Abstract

The Becker (1968) model of crime establishes the importance of the probability of apprehension as a key factor in a rational individual’s decision to commit a crime. In this respect, most empirical studies have used U.S. data to study the effects of more police officers on crime rates. We add to the relatively thin literature on the impacts of clearance rates, which we think is an equally important measure of the probability of apprehension. Our data are drawn from a panel of Canadian provinces from 1986-2005. Reduced form and IV estimates yield statistically significant elasticities of clearance rates, ranging from -0.2 to -0.36 from violent crimes and from -0.5 to -0.6 for property crimes. We think that these findings reflect the importance of productivity of the police force in terms of solving crimes and the possibility that hiring of police officers will not necessarily result in lower crime rates.