Crime and the Use of Prisons in the United States: A Time Series Analysis

Abstract

A recent article by David Biles reported a positive relationship between crime and imprisonment, using cross-sectional data from the United States, Australia, and Canada. This article extends his analysis, using two sets of time series data on crime and imprisonment rates for the United States as a whole. The unlagged correlations between the crime and imprisonment rates for 1941-57 and 1958-78 are not statistically signifi cant, but one of six lagged correlations from 1958-78 is significant, as are four of six from 1941-57. The inconsistency in correlation provides little guidance for the development of correctional policy. Considering these findings, William Nagel's support for a moratorium on prison construction takes on the color of a reasonable, and perhaps even conservative, reading of available policy and management data rather than a radical proposition for change.