Crime and local inequality in South Africa

Gabriel Demombynes,Berk Özler

doi:10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.12.015

Gabriel Demombynes, Berk Özler

Open Access

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2003.12.015

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Abstract

We examine the effects of local inequality on property and violent crime in South Africa. The findings are consistent with economic theories relating local inequality to property crime and also with sociological theories that imply that inequality leads to crime in general. Burglary rates are 25–43% higher in police precincts that are the wealthiest among their neighbors, suggesting that criminals travel to neighborhoods where the expected returns from burglary are highest. Finally, while we find little evidence that inequality between racial groups fosters interpersonal conflict at the local level, racial heterogeneity itself is highly correlated with crime.

Highlights

Crime is among the most difficult of the many challenges facing South Africa in the post-apartheid era
In this paper, utilizing data on crime and welfare in all police station jurisdictions in South Africa, we have analyzed the effect of local inequality on crime
The contribution of this paper is mainly empirical, we have suggested a pathway for the generation of property crimes in a jurisdiction that takes into account the distribution of welfare in the surrounding area, and not just within its own borders

Summary

Introduction

Crime is among the most difficult of the many challenges facing South Africa in the post-apartheid era. Standard economic theories, which seem most applicable to property crime, imply that inequality may be positively correlated with crime through its effect on the differential returns from criminal activity versus legitimate pursuits. This would suggest that there would be no relationship between crime and inequality, controlling for the benefits and costs of crime participation. Mean per capita expenditure and per capita expenditure inequality were estimated for each police station jurisdiction by applying a recently developed small area estimation technique to the South Africa 1996 Population Census, along with the 1995 October Household Survey and Income and Expenditure Survey. Blacks are less likely than those in other racial groups to have private forms of protection (alarms, high walls, fences, armed security, guns) and collective action (neighborhood watch).' 3

Main Results

Conclusions

40 Figure 8

Probit Results using

Inequality in Jurisdiction

Chenet-Smith 36370