Crime and COVID-19: effect of changes in routine activities in Mexico City

Patricio R Estévez-Soto

doi:10.1186/s40163-021-00151-y

Abstract

BackgroundThis study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities, as measured by changes in public transport passenger numbers.MethodThe first objective was assessed by comparing the observed incidence of crime after the COVID-19 pandemic was detected in the country with that expected based on ARIMA forecasts based on the pre-pandemic trends. The second objective was assessed by examining the association between crime incidence and the number of passengers on public transport using regressions with ARIMA errors.ResultsResults indicated that most crime categories decreased significantly after the pandemic was detected in the country or after a national lockdown was instituted. Furthermore, the study found that some of the declines observed were associated with the reductions seen in public transport passenger numbers. However, the findings suggested that the changes in mobility explain part of the declines observed, with important variations per crime type.ConclusionThe findings contribute to the global evaluation of the effects of COVID-19 on crime and propose a robust method to explicitly test whether the changes observed are associated with changes in routine activities.

Highlights

In an effort to counter the spread of COVID-19, governments and communities around the world have implemented local, regional and national ‘lockdowns,’ in which non-essential activities have been severely curtailed and people have been ordered to stay at home
Focusing on Mexico City, this study aims to determine if crime patterns changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities
This study sought to investigate whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any crime changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities as captured by changes in public transport passenger numbers

Summary

Introduction

In an effort to counter the spread of COVID-19, governments and communities around the world have implemented local, regional and national ‘lockdowns,’ in which non-essential activities have been severely curtailed and people have been ordered to stay at home. Because lockdowns have radically and drastically changed most social aspects of human life, it is widely assumed that they have affected other social phenomena. The shift of activity from public to private places drastically affects the opportunity structures of many crime types. The confinement of people in a household can increase the risk of other crimes; in particular, diverse forms of domestic violence may be more likely, as victims cannot escape abusive partners. This study aimed to determine whether crime patterns in Mexico City changed due to the COVID-19 pandemic, and to test whether any changes observed were associated with the disruption of routine activities, as measured by changes in public transport passenger numbers

Objectives

Results

Discussion

Conclusion