Cretaceous climates: Mapping paleo-Köppen climatic zones using a Bayesian statistical analysis of lithologic, paleontologic, and geochemical proxies

Abstract

The Cretaceous Period (145 to 66 Ma) was a prolonged warmhouse to hothouse period characterized by high atmospheric CO2 conditions, elevated surface temperatures, and an enhanced global hydrologic cycle. It provides a case study for understanding how a hothouse climate system operates, and is an analog for future anthropogenic climate change scenarios. This study presents new quantitative temperature and precipitation proxy datasets for nine key Cretaceous time slices (Berriasian/Valanginian, Hauterivian/Barremian, Aptian, Albian, Cenomanian, Turonian, Coniacian/Santonian, Campanian, Maastrichtian), and a new geostatistical analysis technique that utilizes Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm and Bayesian hierarchical models to generate high resolution, quantitative global paleoclimate reconstructions from these proxy datasets, with associated uncertainties. Using these paleoclimate reconstructions, paleo-Köppen (-Geiger) climate zone maps are produced that provide new insights into the changing spatial and temporal climate patterns during the Cretaceous. These new paleoclimate reconstructions and paleo-Köppen climate maps provide new insight into the timing of the initiation of the Early Cretaceous equatorial humid belt over Gondwana and reveal temporal shifts in the width of the subtropical arid belts from the Early to mid- to Late Cretaceous. A comparison of these proxy-based reconstructions and model simulations of Cretaceous climate reveal continued proxy/model differences. In addition, the methodology developed for this study can be applied to other time periods, providing a framework for better understanding ancient climate, environments, and ecosystems.