Abstract
The deterioration and ageing process make the reliability of bridges a time-variant problem. However, most studies about time-dependent reliability focus on material corrosion and damage, less attention is given to the effects of concrete creep on the reliability of bridges. This paper presents a case study to investigate the influence of concrete creep on the serviceability reliability of concrete-filled steel tube (CFST) arch bridges, which have a wide application in China. The structural creep effect was analyzed by Model B3 and the age-adjusted effective modulus method; the reliability analysis was performed by Monte Carlo simulation with the Latin Hypercube sampling method, considering random variables involved in three aspects: creep model uncertainty, and variations of material and geometric properties. The analytic results show that the serviceability reliability of CFST arch bridges decreases due to creep, and creep model uncertainty is the most important factor for the structural creep effects and serviceability reliability.
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