Credit support for the development of the transport complex of the national economy and its sectoral differentiation

Abstract

It was established that the specific weight of bank loans granted to the transport complex of Ukraine in the overall national economy is insignificant - about 3%. The largest share of bank loans in the sectoral portfolio was issued to warehousing and auxiliary activities. The second place is occupied by ground and pipeline transport, the third place is air transport. The share of water transport is negligible. The intensity of the use of loans in foreign currency is the greatest in warehousing and auxiliary activities, much less in aviation, land and pipeline transport. It was established that the share of non-performing loans in the transport complex is quite high, but smaller than in the national economy, in the national currency it is higher compared to the national economy, and in the foreign currency it is much lower. The specific weight of non-performing loans is the largest in warehousing and auxiliary activities, average - in land and pipeline transport, insignificant - in air transport, negligible - in water transport. Analysis of loans to the transport complex in terms of banking institutions made it possible to establish their exponential distribution and high concentration. TOP-3 state-owned banking institutions account for more than half of the value of loans and almost 90% of non-performing loans. TOP-14 banking institutions present almost the entire credit portfolio of the transport complex. It has been proven that one of the reasons for the high level of non-performing loans in the transport complex is the defects in assessing the creditworthiness of borrowers in the industry. Unlike other sections, a separate discriminant model was not built for section H - Transport, warehousing, postal and courier activities. The use of a single aggregated model for the transport complex and twelve other types of economic activity distorts the assessment of the borrower's creditworthiness, since the sectoral conditions of business in them differ significantly. It is proposed to build an individual model of the integral assessment of the borrower's creditworthiness according to section H with differentiation by sub-sectors.