Credit default prediction of Chinese real estate listed companies based on explainable machine learning

Abstract

It is essential to accurately forecast the credit default of real estate businesses and provide interpretable analysis. The intrinsic interpretable glass-box model and the post-hoc black-box model are used to predict and explain the credit default status of China's real estate listed businesses. Chinese annual reports, stock bar investor remarks, financial indicators and Distance to Default (DD) are taken into consideration when forecasting credit default. The AdaBoost model and the intrinsic Explainable Boosting Machine (EBM) model are determined to have the best prediction results, respectively. We present the explainable prediction results to clearly understand the ranking of feature importance and the impact on the prediction results.