Credibility theory based panoramic fuzzy risk analysis of hydropower station operation near the boundary

Abstract

Short-term power generation operation is an important content in the hydropower station management. Because of the limitation of forecast accuracy, there is error between the forecasted runoff process and actual runoff process. When the hydropower station operation is near the water level boundaries, such as normal water level or dead water level, this error is likely to bring the risk of water abandoning or output shortage. In order to precisely evaluate the near-boundary operation risk of hydropower station caused by runoff forecasting error, a novel panoramic fuzzy risk analysis model was proposed in this paper by taking the forecasting error as a fuzzy variable. The coupling of hydrological forecasting error and the short-term operation risk of hydropower station based on credibility theory was realized, and the solving process of the model based on fuzzy simulation technology was provided in detail. Different near-boundary operation risks of hydropower station can be analyzed and evaluated by the simulation with different water level combinations in this model. The high-risk area and suggested operation area of Jinxi hydropower station in different near-boundary operation situations were clearly identified in the case study. The intuitive results of this model can provide a strong technical support for the decision-making of the dispatchers when making the power generation plans in the actual production, so that to avoid the occurrence of water abandoning or output shortage of hydropower station, and effectively improve the efficiency of water resources utilization.