Abstract
Since the development of large scale power grid interconnections and power markets, research on available transfer capability (ATC) has attracted great attention. The challenges for accurate assessment of ATC originate from the numerous uncertainties in electricity generation, transmission, distribution and utilization sectors. Power system uncertainties can be mainly described as two types: randomness and fuzziness. However, the traditional transmission reliability margin (TRM) approach only considers randomness. Based on credibility theory, this paper firstly built models of generators, transmission lines and loads according to their features of both randomness and fuzziness. Then a random fuzzy simulation is applied, along with a novel method proposed for ATC assessment, in which both randomness and fuzziness are considered. The bootstrap method and multi-core parallel computing technique are introduced to enhance the processing speed. By implementing simulation for the IEEE-30-bus system and a real-life system located in Northwest China, the viability of the models and the proposed method is verified.
Highlights
Available transfer capability (ATC) expresses a measure of transfer capability remaining in a physical transmission network for further commercial activity over and above already committed uses [1]
To consider the two-fold uncertainties in the ATC assessment, this paper proposes a novel ATC
Assessment approach based on credibility theory, whereby according to the features of both randomness and fuzziness, the corresponding credibility models of generators, transmission lines and loads are comprehensively built up for the first time; the random fuzzy simulation is applied in the ATC assessment; the bootstrap method and the multi-core parallel computing technique are adopted to enhance the computation speed
Summary
Available transfer capability (ATC) expresses a measure of transfer capability remaining in a physical transmission network for further commercial activity over and above already committed uses [1]. According to the two-fold uncertainty combining randomness and fuzziness in power system operations, a novel operation risk assessment method based on credibility theory is presented; the expected value and the average chance measure of random fuzzy variables was used to build on index of operation risk in [12]. Considering both the randomness of force outage rates and the fuzziness of hydro energy, a comprehensive model of hydro-thermal generator maintenance scheduling based on credibility theory was established in [13].
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