Credibility of Risk scores in predicting coronary artery disease severity in non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome patients

Abstract

Abstract Objectives We aimed to assess the value of Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) and Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) risk scores (RSs) for predicting coronary artery disease (CAD) severity and prognosis in patients with non-ST segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Background Patients with NSTE-ACS are at varying risks of death and recurrent cardiac events, early risk stratification plays a central role, different scores are now available based on initial clinical history, ECG, and laboratory tests that enable early risk stratification on admission. Methods A prospective study was conducted including 100 patients (age, 45–68 years) with NSTE-ACS who were admitted at our hospital from January 2018 to January 2019. The two RSs (TIMI& GRACE) were calculated from the initial clinical history, electrocardiogram, and laboratory values collected and recorded on admission. All patients were subjected to conventional coronary angiography during admission, Patients were divided into two groups: 1) patients with syntax score ≤32 (test group, 80 patients) and 2) patients with syntax score >32 (comparative group, 20 patients). Median follow-up duration was 6 (4–9) days. Results Regarding correlation between coronary angiographic severity based on syntax score and the clinical profile based on the two RSs (TIMI&GRACE) in NSTE-ACS patients, statistically significant correlation were found between GRACE score and syntax score (r=0.789; P=0.001) with GRACE score accuracy: 94% and negative predictive value (NPV): 98.7%, whereas no statistically significant correlation were found between TIMI score and syntax score (r=0.087; P=0.388) with TIMI score accuracy: 32% and NPV: 73.1%. Conclusions In conclusion the GRACE score provides a quick and reliable prediction of CAD severity in NSTE-ACS patients, It allows accurate risk estimation, categorizes patients and consequently can help in making accurate therapeutic decisions either with the use of invasive strategies in high risk selected patients or the use of conservative strategies in low risk patients in presence of limited resources. Funding Acknowledgement Type of funding source: None