Credibility Measure and Its Assessment of Customer Equipment Failure Probability Due to Voltage Sag

Abstract

In order to accurately describe the equipment’ severity caused by voltage sag, the credibility measure which meets the conditions of non-additive is proposed based on their physical properties of responses. This assessment measure can avoid the deficiencies that classical probability measure needs a large number of samples and the non-duality of fuzzy measure. The membership functions of sensitive equipment voltage tolerance capability that corresponding to the characteristic quantities in the status uncertain area was determined by fuzzy statistical method and polynomial fitting method. Then the joint credibility distribution function was deduced based on uncertainty theory. Hence, the assessment model of severity of equipment failure is constructed. Based on practical samples, the PCs were simulated using the proposed method. Comparing the simulation results with methods using classical probability measure and possibility measure prove that the proposed method is proper and credible and can reflect practical condition more objectively.