Crash proneness? Predictors of repeat crashes in older drivers

Abstract

Introduction: Older drivers are believed to be prone to crashes due to age-related deterioration of their driving abilities. Currently, little is known about the characteristics of repeat crashers and the factors that predict subsequent crashes among these older drivers. Method: A dataset containing the records of crash events that occurred between January 2014 and November 2019 was provided by the Department of Transport and Main Roads (DTMR) in Queensland, Australia. This dataset included 16,973 records of older drivers involved in a single crash and 222 cases in multiple crashes, comprising a total of 17,195 cases. Descriptive and inferential analyses were performed to understand the characteristics of repeat crashers. Survival analysis techniques were used to determine risk factors predictive of subsequent crashes. Results: Nearly half (46%) of the repeat crashers were culpable for both of their crashes. Their average age was significantly older than those who were culpable for none or one of their crashes. For older male drivers, riding a motorcycle or driving a heavy vehicle were significant risk factors for having a subsequent crash. The risk for female at-fault drivers being involved in a subsequent crash was 4.53 times greater than those not at-fault. Older female drivers involved in crashes caused by slowing or stopping also presented a higher risk of being involved in subsequent crashes. Conclusions: This study identified risk factors for older drivers being involved in repeat crashes; distinctive gender differences in the risk for involvement in repeat crashes were found. Practical Applications: To reduce the likelihood of older drivers being involved in subsequent crashes, attention should be directed towards elders living in major cities, male motorcycle riders and heavy vehicle drivers, and at-fault female drivers.