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Abstract
This study investigates the impacts of the noticeable change in mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic with analyzing its impact on the spatiotemporal patterns of crashes in four demographically different counties in Florida. We employed three methods: (1) a Geographic Information System (GIS)-based method to visualize the spatial differences in crash density patterns, (2) a non-parametric method (Kruskal–Wallis) to examine whether the changes in crash densities are statistically significant, and (3) a negative binomial regression-based approach to identify the significant socio-demographic and transportation-related factors contributing to crash count decrease during COVID-19. Results confirm significant differences in crash densities during the pandemic. This may be due to maintaining social distancing protocols and curfew imposement in all four counties regardless of their sociodemographic dissimilarities. Negative binomial regression results reveal that the presence of youth populations in Leon County are highly correlated with the crash count decrease during COVID-19. Moreover, less crash count decrease in Hillsborough County U.S. Census blocks, mostly populated by the elderly, indicate that this certain age group maintained their mobility patterns, even during the pandemic. Findings have the potential to provide critical insights in dealing with safety concerns of the above-mentioned shifts in mobility patterns for demographically different areas.
Highlights
To examine the changes in crash density patterns stemming from the COVID-19 pandemic, we developed a Geographic Information Systems (GIS)-based methodology at the county level [55]
With an extensive suite of spatial and statistical models, this study investigated the impacts of the noticeable change in mobility during the COVID-19 pandemic by analyzing its impact on the spatiotemporal patterns of crashes in four demographically different counties in Florida
The results obtained from the Kruskal–Wallis test indicate that COVID-19 conditions led to statistically significant reductions in crash densities in all counties
Summary
On 5 April 2021, the World Health Organization (WHO) announced that there were approximately 131 million confirmed COVID-19 cases all over the world [1]. The U.S, with more than 30 million COVID-19 cases and 554,064 total deaths, ranked first in the globe. Among the U.S states, Florida ranked third after California and Texas in terms of the highest number of cases [2]. The Florida Department of Health announced 2,085,306 cases and 33,710 deaths due to coronavirus throughout the state, as of 5 April 2021 [3]. This issue becomes even more challenging when aging populations are considered, due to their cognitive, behavioral, and health limitations [4].
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