COVID-19: Work, Economic Activity and the Spatiotemporal Distribution of Infection in South Africa

Abstract

Work-related and economic factors contributing to the geographical distribution of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 infection) during the first wave of COVID-19 in South Africa were investigated. Provincial demographic, employment and financial data were analysed in relation to COVID-19 disease cumulative case incidence rates (CCIR) during the respective first wave to gain deeper insights into spatial distribution and temporal variability across provinces using an ecological study design. Provinces with the largest GDP per capita and considered to be the economic hubs of South Africa (Gauteng, Western Cape and KwaZulu-Natal) had some of the highest CCIR in the country compared to other less economically developed provinces (north-west, Mpumalanga, Limpopo Province). Multivariate Poisson regression analysis found that provinces with a higher proportion of employed working population or having greater percentage changes of mobility to workplaces prior to the commencement of the first provincial wave were more likely to have increasing cumulative case incidence rates (incidence rate ratio, IRR = 1.05). The study suggests that the first provincial waves in South Africa were also driven by economic factors of employment and mobility to workplaces. Workplace preventative strategies should be an important focus for the current COVID-19 pandemic.KeywordsCOVID-19SARS-CoV-2WorkEconomic sectorsEconomic activitySpatiotemporal variation