Abstract
AAs of July 21st, 2020, the new coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) has infected almost all countries around the world and caused more than 14.8 million confirmed cases, due to its strong transmissibility and fast spread speed. Among these regions,``Diamond Princess" cruise ship is a special infection place, an isolated system with a high population concentration and highly dense space, providing more favorable conditions for the spread of the novel coronavirus pneumonia(COVID-19). In addition, the Japanese government's emergency measures for the spread of COVID-19 on the cruise ship were also being questioned. Therefore, a homogeneous mixed difference system is established in this paper to describe the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 on the cruise ship, to reverse-predict the epidemic transmission trend from January 20 to February 20, 2020, including the daily number of infected human and the peak time of infection, to calculate the range of the basic reproduction number of virus transmission on the cruise ship, and to assess the effect of prevention and control measures. It is concluded that isolation of people, rapid and comprehensive detection play an important role in the control of the epidemic. In fact, the Japanese government's emergency measures have a certain control effect, but the number of infected people would be reduced by at least 60 percent if all personnel on the cruise ship had been tested and placed promptly and quickly as early as February 5.
Highlights
Since December 2019 a new coronavirus pneumonia, named COVID-19, has spread menacingly quickly and invaded more than 200 countries, infecting over 14.8 million people and causing more than 600,000 deaths by July 21, 2020
Passengers and crew were tested in batches irregularly, and individuals confirmed to be positive for COVID-19 were to disembark for treatment at designated institutions in Japan
A total of 721 on the Diamond Princess were reported to be infected with SARS-CoV-2
Summary
Since December 2019 a new coronavirus pneumonia, named COVID-19, has spread menacingly quickly and invaded more than 200 countries, infecting over 14.8 million people and causing more than 600,000 deaths by July 21, 2020. On January 20, the Diamond Princess departed from Yokohama, Japan, and a passenger from Hong Kong embarked. The passenger disembarked in Hong Kong on January 25 and was confirmed to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 on February 1. Passengers and crew were tested in batches irregularly, and individuals confirmed to be positive for COVID-19 were to disembark for treatment at designated institutions in Japan. From February 19, passengers who tested negative and in whose room there were no confirmed cases were allowed to disembark. From February 27, the crew of the cruise ship began to disembark and were sent to Saitama prefecture and Hikari city in Japan to be isolated for 14 days. A total of 721 on the Diamond Princess were reported to be infected with SARS-CoV-2
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