Abstract
Purpose: The novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)) first appeared in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and rapidly spread across the globe. Since most respiratory viruses are known to show a seasonal pattern of infection, it has been hypothesised that SARS-CoV-2 may be seasonally dependent as well. The present study looks at a possible effect of atmospheric temperature, which is one of the suspected factors influencing seasonality, on the evolution of the pandemic. Basic procedures: Since confirming a seasonal pattern would take several more months of observation, we conducted an innovative day-to-day micro-correlation analysis of nine outbreak locations, across four continents and both hemispheres, in order to examine a possible relationship between atmospheric temperature (used as a proxy for seasonality) and outbreak progression. Main findings: There was a negative correlation between atmospheric temperature variations and daily new cases growth rates, in all nine outbreaks, with a median lag of 10 days. Principal conclusions: The results presented here suggest that high temperatures might dampen SARS-CoV-2 propagation, while lower temperatures might increase its transmission. Our hypothesis is that this could support a potential effect of atmospheric temperature on coronavirus disease progression, and potentially a seasonal pattern for this virus, with a peak in the cold season and rarer occurrences in the summer. This could guide government policy in both the Northern and Southern hemispheres for the months to come.
Highlights
The novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)) emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and rapidly spread globally, being officially termed a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020 [1, 2]
The present study examines the correlation between atmospheric temperatures and the emergence of new COVID-19 cases, using data from nine different outbreak locations across four continents, associated with a broad array of conditions
Since the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerged in Hubei Province, China, and spread to most countries across the globe, the factors influencing its transmission have been under intense scrutiny and produced a great deal of speculation
Summary
The novel coronavirus (severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2)) emerged in Wuhan, China, in December 2019 and rapidly spread globally, being officially termed a pandemic by the World Health Organization (WHO) on 11 March 2020 [1, 2]. As of 15 June 2020, 8 035 234 people worldwide have tested positive for the virus and 436 380 deaths caused by the virus have been recorded [3]. Despite the large number of publications on the subject (24 468 referenced publications on PubMed with the term ‘COVID’ as of 15 June 2020), many of the factors influencing the transmission and contagiousness of the virus remain elusive. Infections caused by many respiratory viruses are known to be seasonal [4]. They are responsible for 2.6 million deaths each year, occurring mostly during the winter season. For this reason this period of the year is referred to as ‘cold and flu’ season in temperate climates. It has been hypothesised that coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) could follow a similar seasonal pattern [5]
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