COVID-19 prevalence and fatality rates in association with air pollution emission concentrations and emission sources

Abstract

The novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is primarily respiratory in nature, and as such, there is interest in examining whether air pollution might contribute to disease susceptibility or outcome. We merged data on COVID-19 cumulative prevalence and fatality rates as of May 31, 2020 with 2014–2019 pollution data from the US Environmental Protection Agency Environmental Justice Screen (EJSCREEN), with control for state testing rates, population density, and population covariate data from the County Health Rankings. Pollution data included three types of air emission concentrations (particulate matter<2.5 μm (PM2.5), ozone and diesel particulate matter (DPM)), and four pollution source variables (proximity to traffic, National Priority List sites, Risk Management Plan (RMP) sites, and hazardous waste treatment, storage and disposal facilities (TSDFs)). Results of mixed model linear multiple regression analyses indicated that, controlling for covariates, COVID-19 prevalence and fatality rates were significantly associated with greater DPM. Proximity to TSDFs was associated to greater fatality rates, and proximity to RMPs was associated with greater prevalence rates. Results are consistent with previous research indicating that air pollution increases susceptibility to respiratory viral pathogens. Results should be interpreted cautiously given the ecological design, the time lag between exposure and outcome, and the uncertainties in measuring COVID-19 prevalence. Areas with worse prior air quality, especially higher concentrations of diesel exhaust, may be at greater COVID-19 risk, although further studies are needed to confirm these relationships.