Abstract
A plethora of measures are being combined in the attempt to reduce SARS-CoV-2 spread. Due to its sustainability, contact tracing is one of the most frequently applied interventions worldwide, albeit with mixed results. We evaluate the performance of digital contact tracing for different infection detection rates and response time delays. We also introduce and analyze a novel strategy we call contact prevention, which emits high exposure warnings to smartphone users according to Bluetooth-based contact counting. We model the effect of both strategies on transmission dynamics in SERIA, an agent-based simulation platform that implements population-dependent statistical distributions. Results show that contact prevention remains effective in scenarios with high diagnostic/response time delays and low infection detection rates, which greatly impair the effect of traditional contact tracing strategies. Contact prevention could play a significant role in pandemic mitigation, especially in developing countries where diagnostic and tracing capabilities are inadequate. Contact prevention could thus sustainably reduce the propagation of respiratory viruses while relying on available technology, respecting data privacy, and most importantly, promoting community-based awareness and social responsibility. Depending on infection detection and app adoption rates, applying a combination of digital contact tracing and contact prevention could reduce pandemic-related mortality by 20–56%.
Highlights
A plethora of measures are being combined in the attempt to reduce SARS-CoV-2 spread
Undetected infections are a key characteristic of the COVID-19 pandemic that severely impacts Contact Tracing (CT) strategies, as no contact tracing is possible without diagnosis, which is most generally triggered by symptom onset
To assess the effectiveness of each strategy in diminishing viral propagation, we perform 365 days of SERIA simulation with initial R e = 1.5, and assess the percentage of the population infected at the end of said simulations (FES). Re = 1.5 is an estimated R e for populations that are implementing mandatory mask use, have closed places of worship, schools and universities, banned social gatherings of more than 10 people and implemented protocols for restaurants, bars and gymnasiums
Summary
A plethora of measures are being combined in the attempt to reduce SARS-CoV-2 spread. Sustainable and widely applied nonpharmaceutical interventions such as effectively communicating prevention measures, cancellation of large-scale public gatherings, widespread/mandatory mask utilization, and travel restrictions have proved to be insufficient to contain viral spread in many c ountries[2] In this context, Contact Tracing (CT) has been extensively used to attempt to control o utbreaks[3] by identifying and isolating close contacts of diagnosed patients as soon as possible, to prevent further transmission. The effectiveness of CT has been enhanced by embracing this technology in several countries[7,8,9], not free of data privacy concerns, among other c ontroversies[10,11] Both manual and digital CT evidenced a common disadvantage intrinsic to the very nature of this reactive strategy: it depends largely on the percentage of infected individuals which are successfully and quickly diagnosed with COVID-19. We argue this CT limitation is the main reason for observing satisfactory results only when combined with other policies such as detection and isolation via enhanced/random testing or contact avoidance via household q uarantine[14]
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