COVID-19 and the Rise of Maternal Deaths: Evidence from Mexico

Abstract

I use 2018-2020 weekly data on maternal deaths for all states in Mexico and find evidence that the COVID-19 pandemic led to a meaningful increase in maternal deaths during 2020. Using a Poisson count regression model that accounts for seasonal trends and unobserved differences across states, I find that maternal deaths started increasing meaningfully four weeks after the nationwide stay-at-home order began. According to my model estimates, in eighteen of the weeks after the nationwide stay-at-home order started, the expected number of weekly maternal deaths increased by a factor of two or more. There were also four weeks after the stay-at-home orders where the expected number of weekly maternal deaths increased by a factor of 3 or more. I also document two mechanisms that could plausibly explain this increase. First, COVID-19 was the main underlying cause of 26.5 percent of maternal deaths in 2020. Therefore, the virus itself increased the risk to pregnant women during 2020 relative to 2018-2019. Second, I document a sharp decrease in the number of office visits for medical consultations pertaining to high-risk pregnancies in Mexico during 2020 once the pandemic started.