COVID-19 and Beyond: COVID-19 Interventions and Power Plant Emissions in the United States

Abstract

Short- and long-term changes in electricity generating unit (EGU) emissions were observed during COVID-19 public health interventions in the United States. In a generalized synthetic control framework, we employ weekly EGU SO2, NOx, and CO2 emissions data from EPA’s Clean Air Markets Database and location-specific meteorology from 2010 to 2019 to estimate each EGU’s hypothetical business as usual (BAU) emissions throughout 2020. We find that over 60% (covering >50% of total electricity generation) of EGUs saw SO2, NOx, and CO2 emissions increases relative to BAU, with most of the increases occurring in the eastern U.S. We find increases relative to BAU in the March–April stringent lockdown period for SO2, NOx, and CO2 of 44% (4500 tons/week), 23% (2200 tons/week), and 14% (2.3 million tons/week), respectively, with similar results from March to December 2020. We find that EGUs using coal as primary fuels are the main driver of increased emissions due to increased operations, and SO2 emissions increases at coal EGUs led to a 28% increase in PM2.5 related to coal SO2 emissions relative to BAU across March–December. We find increases in SO2 and NOx emissions factors at coal EGUs in 2020 relative to 2019 that likely played a role in these increases, and we identify changes in coal fuel consumption and price that may have played a role.