Abstract
(1) Background: The vaccine supply is likely to be limited in 2021 due to constraints in manufacturing. To maximize the benefit from the rollout phase, an optimal strategy of vaccine allocation is necessary based on each country’s epidemic status. (2) Methods: We first developed a heterogeneous population model considering the transmission matrix using maximum likelihood estimation based on the epidemiological records of individual COVID-19 cases in the Republic of Korea. Using this model, the vaccine priorities for minimizing mortality or incidence were investigated. (3) Results: The simulation results showed that the optimal vaccine allocation strategy to minimize the mortality (or incidence) was to prioritize elderly and healthcare workers (or adults) as long as the reproductive number was below (or over ). (4) Conclusion: Our simulation results support the current Korean government vaccination priority strategy, which prioritizes healthcare workers and senior groups to minimize mortality, under the condition that the reproductive number remains below . This study revealed that, in order to maintain the current vaccine priority policy, it is important to ensure that the reproductive number does not exceed the threshold by concurrently implementing nonpharmaceutical interventions.
Highlights
The severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) pandemic has been spreading worldwide since the end of 2019 from Wuhan, China
We developed a transmission matrix using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE), based on the epidemiological records of individual COVID-19 cases in
The personal data of COVID-19 patients regarding the age, diagnosis date, and symptom onset date were provided by the Korea Disease Control and Prevention Agency (KDCA)
Summary
The severe acute respiratory syndrome-coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) pandemic has been spreading worldwide since the end of 2019 from Wuhan, China. Owing to its characteristics of high transmissibility and severity, COVID-19 has threatened the healthcare systems in many countries, and the immediate nonpharmaceutical interventions that have been proposed to prevent the breakdown of the medical system have posed a serious socio-economic burden [2,3] These nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as social distancing, wearing masks, washing hands, maintaining personal hygiene, minimizing unnecessary meetings, restricting travel, and remote schooling, are essential for preventing and reducing the transmission of COVID-19. They have not been able to completely stop its spread. The transmission of COVID-19 could be ended once the population achieves herd immunity from the pharmacological intervention of vaccination
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