COVID-19 Vaccine Collaborative Supply Planning: Is This the Next Frontier for Routine Immunization Supply Chains?

Abstract

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, vaccine manufacturers quickly pivoted to develop vaccines, offering limited visibility into production timelines and quantities. Low- and middle-income countries developed vaccine introduction plans within the context of constrained global supply, unknown vaccine availability or timelines, and unknown demand. The Vaccine Collaborative Supply Planning (VCSP) Initiative was established to address the gaps in visibility of supply and demand of COVID-19 vaccines for improved supply planning. The Initiative drew from experiences with supply planning for other health program products. The Initiative's 2 goals for introducing COVID-19 vaccines were to: (1) incorporate the use of supply chain data for forecasting, supply planning, and resupply decisions; and (2) establish a collaborative model for governments and partners to learn and implement. Beginning in September 2021, the Initiative was operational in 15 countries through strategic partnerships with government immunization programs and 7 partnering organizations. Partners noted the Initiative offered several benefits: enabled visibility into stock status; provided ability to triangulate service delivery and stock data; provided insight into products at risk of expiry; facilitated tracking of monthly consumption patterns to inform decisions; offered ability to create forecasting scenarios; provided support to national logistics working groups; improved coordination at the country level; created trust through transparency across global partners; and offered opportunity for real-time adjustments through adaptive learning. Partners also noted challenges, including the influence of political decisions and the availability of quality data. The Initiative successfully applied best practices for supply planning, established a collaborative model with government decision-makers and partners, and used an adaptive learning approach to respond to the challenges of rolling out the COVID-19 vaccine. Lessons learned and recommendations suggest how this approach can be used to strengthen forecasting and supply planning for all vaccines as the COVID-19 vaccine is integrated into routine services.