Covid-19 USA and World Death Rates Analysis, Modeling, and Recommendations

Abstract

Current COVID-19 death rates are reviewed and analyzed to develop a new mathematical model of virus induced death rates in the U.S. states and world countries. Here, we report that death rates per million are dependent on: population density, latitude, and a small interval of temperature range. A contribution of this research is that we quantify personal spread rate (PSR) for each U.S. state and country analyzed. In the U.S. the highest death rate is NY State (with about ½ of the state deaths occurring in NY City). The PSR for NY State is 53. For reference the PSR for influenza is about 1. Thus, the virus death rate in NY State is about 53 times that of influenza. This PSR quantification is needed to compare and contrast mitigation strategies between U.S. states and world countries. In Spain the PSR is 32 and Sweden is 27. Sweden is taking minimal mitigation steps with no shut-down. We also conclude that the length scale for COVID-19 deaths is the mile where city dwellers touch many surfaces on their daily way to and from. We think mass transit systems contribute, in a big way, to the death rate and this presents an opportunity to sanitize these systems and public buildings with chemicals and Ultra Violet light to reduce the spread and death rate of COVID-19 and other viruses.