COVID-19 Risk Assessment: Contributing to Maintaining Urban Public Health Security and Achieving Sustainable Urban Development

Jun Zhang,Xiaodie Yuan

doi:10.3390/su13084208

Abstract

As the most infectious disease in 2020, COVID-19 is an enormous shock to urban public health security and to urban sustainable development. Although the epidemic in China has been brought into control at present, the prevention and control of it is still the top priority of maintaining public health security. Therefore, the accurate assessment of epidemic risk is of great importance to the prevention and control even to overcoming of COVID-19. Using the fused data obtained from fusing multi-source big data such as POI (Point of Interest) data and Tencent-Yichuxing data, this study assesses and analyzes the epidemic risk and main factors that affect the distribution of COVID-19 on the basis of combining with logistic regression model and geodetector model. What’s more, the following main conclusions are obtained: the high-risk areas of the epidemic are mainly concentrated in the areas with relatively dense permanent population and floating population, which means that the permanent population and floating population are the main factors affecting the risk level of the epidemic. In other words, the reasonable control of population density is greatly conducive to reducing the risk level of the epidemic. Therefore, the control of regional population density remains the key to epidemic prevention and control, and home isolation is also the best means of prevention and control. The precise assessment and analysis of the epidemic conducts by this study is of great significance to maintain urban public health security and achieve the sustainable urban development.

Highlights

Using the fused data obtained from fusing spatial geographical big data such as Point of Interest (POI) data and Tencent-Yichuxing data, this study explores primary and secondary factors that affect epidemic risk and the interrelationship among these factors except for assessing the risk level, and it is shown in the world
The assessment of distribution of COVID-19 risk level is of great practical significance to both the protection of public health security and the sustainable development of urban areas
Using spatial geographical big data such as POI data and Tencent-Yichuxing data, this study assessed the epidemic risk level of COVID-19 and analyzed the main factors that affect the distribution of COVID-19 in Guangzhou as well as the interrelationship among these factors on the basis of combining with logistic regression model and geodetectorgeodictator model

Summary

Introduction

Corona Virus Disease (COVID-19), rampaging around the whole world throughout the year 2020, has adversely affected global public health security and seriously threated human’s health [1,2]. The whole country is actively coordinating to control the epidemic, the COVID-19 is still spreading. The accurate identification of the current high-risk areas of the epidemic and the assessment of the risk level of the epidemic in different areas are both important prerequisites for the formulation of epidemic prevention policies [3]. With the approach of the winter season in the Northern Hemisphere, COVID-19 is becoming more and more active, which makes the prevention of the second outbreak of COVID-19 still an important challenge for the global epidemic treatment

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