Abstract
Currently the world is threatened by a global COVID-19 pandemic and it has induced crisis creating a lot of disruptions in the healthcare system, social life and economy. In this article we present the analysis of COVID-19 situation in Lithuania and it's municipalities taking into consideration the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the reproduction number. We have analysed the period from 20/03/2020 to 20/06/2021 covering two quarantines applied in Lithuania. We calculated the reproduction number using the incidence data provided by State Data Governance Information System, while the information for applied non-pharmaceutical interventions was extracted from Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker and the COVID-19 website of Government of the Republic of Lithuania. The positive effect of applied non-pharmaceutical interventions on reproduction number was observed when internal movement ban was applied in 16/12/2020 during the second quarantine in Lithuania.
Highlights
Since the emergence of the first cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the situation quickly turned into the worldwide pandemics
In this article we present the analysis of COVID-19 situation in Lithuania and it’s municipalities taking into consideration the effective reproduction number and the effect of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the COVID-19 transmission dynamics during the second quarantine
The dynamics of reproduction number and the restrictions applied were analysed from the 20/03/2020 till the 20/06/2021 covering two quarantines applied in Lithuania
Summary
Since the emergence of the first cases of COVID-19 in Wuhan, China in December 2019, the situation quickly turned into the worldwide pandemics. 2021, there are over 176 million confirmed COVID-19 cases in the world, and several hundred thousand new cases emerge each day across the globe [1]. One way to evaluate the temporal variation in the spread of the virus is to calculate the time-varying dimensionless estimate – reproduction number (R). The pandemics develop when R > 1; when R = 1 the spread is endemic, and the R < 1 define the decreasing number of new cases. R estimate is highly dependent on the number of contacts the infected individuals have, probability to infect other healthy individuals and the length of period during which infected individual can infect others [21]. R is often used to determine how the viral transmission changes in regards to changing the policies, adding some restrictions, developing an immunity and other factors [3, 15]
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