Abstract
This work used event study to examine the impact of three policies (shutdowns, reopening, and mask mandates) on changes in the daily COVID-19 infection growth rate at the state level in the US (February through August 2020). The results show the importance of early intervention: shutdowns and mask mandates reduced the COVID-19 infection growth rate immediately after being imposed statewide. Over the longer term, mask mandates had a larger effect on flattening the curve than shutdowns. The increase in the daily infection growth rate pushed state governments to shut down, but reopening led to significant increases in new cases 21 days afterward. The results suggest a dynamic social distancing approach: a shutdown for a short period followed by reopening, combined with universal mask wearing. We also found that the COVID-19 growth rate increased in states with higher percentages of essential workers (during reopening) and higher percentages of minorities (during the mask mandate period). Health insurance access for low-income workers (via Medicaid expansion) helped to reduce COVID-19 cases in the reopening model. The implications for public health show the importance of access to health insurance and mask mandates to protect low-income essential workers, but minority groups still face a higher risk of infection during the pandemic.
Highlights
On 11 March, the WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic
This study addressed the following questions: Which policies are more responsive to an increase in COVID-19 infection growth rates, and which have the greatest impact on reducing the COVID-19 infection growth rate? How is the COVID-19 infection growth rate related to Medicaid expansion, essential workers, and minority groups?
We ran three event study models in STATA 14 to examine the factors related to the COVID-19 daily infection growth rate over the study period (Table 1) for three policies: the implementation of shutdowns, reopening, and mask mandates
Summary
On 11 March, the WHO declared COVID-19 as a pandemic. By the end of August 2020, 6,045,455 people were infected in the US, and 183,472 had died [1]. Social distancing practices are the most efficient way to reduce COVID-19 spread and were implemented in China [3], South Korea [4], Singapore [5], the UK [6], Spain [7], and many countries in the European Union [8]. On 19 March 2020, California was the first state to impose a stay-at-home order to slow the spread. In the first wave of the pandemic in the US, the daily new cases peaked in mid-April (32,000/day) and slowly decreased [1]. South Carolina was one of the first states to reopen, only 13 days after its stay-at-home order was first imposed. The new case rate dropped after August, as more states issued mandated facial masking orders. New York State was the COVID-19 epicenter back in April 2020, but due to its early stay-at-home order, mandated facial mask wearing, and later
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Free) 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a call
