COVID-19 Pandemic, Technological Progress and Food Security Based on a Dynamic CGE Model

Abstract

The global spread of COVID-19 has complicated the international equilibrium of grain production and trade. China now faces external shocks in the international grain market and deep-seated problems associated with the structure of domestic supply. We used a dynamic, computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to analyse the effects on China’s food security and macroeconomics under the COVID-19 scenario and four technological progress paths in the agricultural sector. We showed that the COVID-19 pandemic is disrupting China’s food security in the short term, and critical quantitative variables such as grain production and grain consumption per capita have declined. Considering food security and macroeconomic development, labour-saving technological progress outperformed neutral technological progress, land-saving technological progress, and capital-saving technological progress in the short run. While land-saving technological progress contributes the most to the arable land area per capita of wheat and other grains in the long run.