COVID-19 pandemic, Russia-Ukraine conflict and shale gas development: Evidence from fractional integration

Abstract

Although there are papers on the persistence of energy series including the persistence of shale gas, the impact of recent developments such as the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine conflict have been rarely explored in the existing literature. This paper examines the structure of shale gas production in the U.S. by looking at the degree of persistence across different areas, with the aim to determine if shocks in the series are permanent or transitory. Using fractional integration methods (which unlike the conventional methods, allow for the determination of the persistence of energy and non-energy series in a robust manner), and different subsamples that include the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine war, our results indicate that there is a substantial decrease in the integration order in the total shale gas production in the U.S. as well as in four other plays-Haynesville, Permian, Utica and Eagle Ford. However, no differences are observed with respect to the Russia-Ukraine war. There is another group of four series (Marcellus, Niobrara-Codell, Woodford and Rest of US 'shale’) with a very small reduction in the degree of persistence and another group of three series with almost no reduction at all in the order of integration (Barnett, Mississippian and Fayetteville). Several implications in terms of policy are reported at the end of the manuscript.