Covid-19 lockdowns, income distribution, and food security: An analysis for South Africa

Channing Arndt,Rob Davies,Sherwin Gabriel,Laurence Harris,Konstantin Makrelov,Sherman Robinson,Stephanie Levy,Witness Simbanegavi,Dirk Van Seventer,Lillian Anderson

doi:10.1016/j.gfs.2020.100410

Abstract

Absent vaccines and pharmaceutical interventions, the only tool available to mitigate its demographic effects is some measure of physical distancing, to reduce contagion by breaking social and economic contacts. Policy makers must balance the positive health effects of strong distancing measures, such as lockdowns, against their economic costs, especially the burdens imposed on low income and food insecure households. The distancing measures deployed by South Africa impose large economic costs and have negative implications for the factor distribution of income. Labor with low education levels are much more strongly affected than labor with secondary or tertiary education. As a result, households with low levels of educational attainment and high dependence on labor income would experience an enormous real income shock that would clearly jeopardize the food security of these households. However, in South Africa, total incomes for low income households are significantly insulated by government transfer payments. From public health, income distribution and food security perspectives, the remarkably rapid and severe shocks imposed because of Covid-19 illustrate the value of having in place transfer policies that support vulnerable households in the event of ‘black swan’ type shocks.

Highlights

The battle against the Covid-19 pandemic presents countries with difficult policy choices
Absent vaccines and pharmaceutical in terventions, the only tool available to mitigate its demographic effects is some measure of physical distancing, to reduce contagion by breaking social and economic contacts
This paper examines the implications of lockdown policies for income distribution and food security, using South Africa as a case country, with a focus on the role of social protection in preserving food security

Summary

Introduction

The battle against the Covid-19 pandemic presents countries with difficult policy choices. Distancing measures adopted range from purely advisory to complete lockdown of households and non-essential producers. They impose a negative shock on the economy, with imme diate decline in economic activity followed by medium-term and longterm economic effects. The burden of these shocks is not borne across society. This paper examines the implications of lockdown policies for income distribution and food security, using South Africa as a case country, with a focus on the role of social protection in preserving food security.

Shocks and social protection

Lockdown policies in South Africa

Methodology and data

Results

Declaration of competing interest