COVID-19 Lockdown and Exposure of Households to Food Insecurity in Uganda: Insights from a National High Frequency Phone Survey.

Abstract

We estimate the impact of COVID-19 lockdown induced income shocks on household food insecurity outcomes in Uganda using five rounds of a nationally representative High Frequency Phone Survey. Relative to the baseline survey conducted just before the pandemic, there was a significant decrease in households’ participation in wage work, agricultural production, and non-farm business which in turn increased their income losses. Consequently, we find that lockdown induced income losses significantly increased incidences of food insecurity within households. With incidences of food insecurity increasing especially in rural areas, it is likely that COVID-19 reversed some of the gains recorded in recent years in lifting millions of rural smallholder farming households out of poverty. These results suggest that to assure the food security of poorer segments of the population especially in anticipation of future shocks, the government needs to invest more in social protection i.e., income and consumption support.