Covid-19 infection risk on US domestic airlines

Abstract

Working with recent data and research findings, we estimate the probability that an air traveler in economy class would have contracted Covid-19 on a US domestic jet flight over the nine-month period June 2020 to February 2021. The estimates take account of the rates of confirmed Covid-19 infections in the US, flight duration, fraction of seats occupied, and some demographic differences between US air travelers and US citizens as a whole. Based on point estimates, the risk of contracting Covid-19 in-flight exceeded 1 in 1000 on a fully-loaded two-hour flight at the height of the pandemic over the nine months, but was about 1 in 6000 on a half-full flight when the pandemic was at a low ebb. However, these estimates are subject to substantial uncertainty, with the 10th percentiles of various risk distributions only about 1/7 as large as the medians, and the 90th percentiles about four times as large. Based on seat-occupancy levels on US flights for each month over June 2020 to February 2021, the median risk estimate for that period is 1 in 2250, while the mean risk estimate is 1 in 1450. Indirect effects arose because those who contracted Covid-19 on US airplanes could in turn infect others.