Abstract
"This study aims to identify the determinant country-level factors that impact the trend of registered death cases from the recently emerged infectious disease COVID-19, analyzing data from March 2020 to July 2020, for 40 European countries. We use four categories of indicators covering major areas of influence: health, demographic, economic, and societal/cultural indicators. We reduce the dimensionality of the data to three latent factors by applying a Principal Component Analysis method, and we employ a multiple linear regression model to estimate the effects of these factors on the trend of death rates. The main result of the study is that a decreasing trend of death cases is the effect of a functional and citizen-oriented state, and is not only impacted by characteristics of the medical system or by individual features. Our findings also suggest that the premises for a low mortality rate are built by policies that have effects in the long- and medium-term. These policies refer to economic growth, sustainable development, healthcare, and the creation of a stable political system and an efficient administration."
Highlights
The year 2020 was marked by a major health shock. This was the newly emerged COVID-19, which is an infectious disease caused by a coronavirus known as SARS-V2, which has reached a pandemic level
This paper aims to identify the main country-level factors that impacted the trend of registered death cases, from March 2020 to July 2020, for 40 European countries
The analyses of the medical and financial strategies adopted by European countries to prevent the spread of the coronavirus show that measures based on a general, multidimensional view of the system, in areas such as health, government, and the economy, lead to the most efficient results
Summary
The year 2020 was marked by a major health shock. This was the newly emerged COVID-19, which is an infectious disease caused by a coronavirus known as SARS-V2, which has reached a pandemic level. European agencies such as European Center for Disease Control (ECDC) have issued a series of recommendations, such as social distancing, risk assessment for the general population and its communication, supporting vulnerable groups, and ensuring the continuity of the business environment Aside from these measures, similar to those adopted in the case of other pandemics (quarantine, self-isolation, social distancing), specific factors have proven to be of interest. The research hypothesis is that a decreasing trend of death cases is the effect of a functional and citizen-oriented state, and is impacted by characteristics of the medical system or by individual features The research on this topic is in the early stages, so our study is adding to the scarce literature by analyzing several groups of country-level factors and considering almost all European countries. The paper is structured as follows: following this introduction are a literature review on the topic and a description of the data and the employed methodology; it ends by presenting the empirical results and the conclusions of the study
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