COVID-19 in the U.S. during pre-vaccination period: Shifting impact of sociodemographic factors and air pollution.

Abstract

Pandemic "wave" usually refers to the rise and fall of the infections with time, however, for a large country, the variations due to geographical location could be considerable. In this work, we investigated COVID-19 infection and fatality across the U.S. during the pandemic waves in the pre-vaccination period (January 2020-December 2020). Focusing on counties with a population ≥100,000, the data from the entire period were first segmented into two equal phases roughly corresponding to the first pandemic wave and subsequent surge, and each phase was further divided into two zones based on infection rate. We studied the potential influences of six sociodemographic variables (population density, age, poverty, education, and percentage of Hispanic and African American population) and four air pollutants (PM2.5, NO2, SO2, and O3) on the differences in infection and fatality observed among different phases and zones. We noticed a distinct difference in the overall impact of COVID-19 between the two phases of the pre-vaccination period with a substantial decrease in the fatality in the second phase despite an increase in the infection. Analysis using log-linear regression modeling further revealed a shift in the impact of several risk factors considered in this study. For example, population density and lesser education were found to be significant for infection during the first phase of the pandemic alone. Furthermore, population density and lesser education along with poverty and NO2 level had a significant contribution to fatality during the first phase of the pandemic, while age over 65 years was important in both phases. Interestingly, the effects of many of these factors were found to be significant only in the zones with higher infection rates. Our findings indicate that the impacts of several well-known sociodemographic and environmental risk factors for COVID-19 are not constant throughout the course of the pandemic, and therefore, careful considerations should be made about their role when developing preventative and mitigative measures.