COVID-19 impact on taxi-metro integrated usage: Changes and role of built environment, taking Lanzhou, China as an example

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a profound impact on how and how often people travel. The extent of changes in taxi-metro integrated usage (cooperative trips and competitive trips) before and after the pandemic is still unclear. Therefore, this paper aims to explore the impacts of COVID-19 on taxi-metro integrated usage and the relationship with built environment. This paper develops a novel method to infer the impact of COVID-19 on taxi-metro integrated usage and measures the resilience of cooperative and competitive ridership using a series of Bayesian structural time series models. The bootstrap aggregating regression tree model is applied to investigate the contribution of built environment on the relative impacts and resilience. Partial Dependence Plots (PDP) analysis is employed to explore the nonlinear effects of built environment elements. Results suggests: (1) The travel restrictions have a more significant impact than the number of COVID-19 cases on taxi-metro integrated usage. (2) Built environment factors contribute similarly to resisting the impact of COVID-19 on cooperative and competitive ridership during short-term and long-term period. (3) The recovery of the ridership shows a significant spatial heterogeneity. (4) Variables such as residential ratio, road network density, and bus stop density show nonlinear and threshold effects on the resilience of the ridership. Our findings have implications for travel policies during recovery from the pandemic.