Abstract
INTRODUCTION: The acceleration of new cases is important for the characterization and comparison of epidemic curves. The objective of this study was to quantify the acceleration of daily confirmed cases and death curves using the polynomial interpolation method. METHODS: Covid-19 epidemic curves from Brazil, Germany, the United States, and Russia were obtained. We calculated the instantaneous acceleration of the curve using the first derivative of the representative polynomial. RESULTS: The acceleration for all curves was obtained. CONCLUSIONS: Incorporating acceleration into an analysis of the Covid-19 time series may enable a better understanding of the epidemiological situation.
Highlights
Introduction: The acceleration of new cases is important for the characterization and comparison of epidemic curves
We calculated the instantaneous acceleration of the curve using the first derivative of the representative polynomial
Incorporating acceleration into an analysis of the Covid-19 time series may enable a better understanding of the epidemiological situation
Summary
The acceleration of new cases is important for the characterization and comparison of epidemic curves. P - Peak of new cases, limit between the acceleration (A1 + A2) and deceleration phases of reports (D1 + D2). A2 - Second stage of curve acceleration phase, increase in new cases and decrease in acceleration to zero over time.
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