COVID-19 forecasting and intervention planning using gated recurrent unit and evolutionary algorithm.

Abstract

The rapid spread of COVID-19, caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, has had and continues to pose a significant threat to global health. We propose a predictive model based on the gated recurrent unit (GRU) that investigates the influence of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on the progression of COVID-19. The proposed model is validated by case studies for multiple states in the United States. It should be noted that the proposed model can be generalized to other regions of interest. The results show that the predictive model can achieve accurate forecasts across the US. The forecast is then utilized to identify the optimal mitigation policies. The goal is to identify the best stringency level for each policy that can minimize the total number of new COVID-19 cases while minimizing the mitigation costs. A meta-heuristics method, named multi-population evolutionary algorithm with differential evolution (MPEA-DE), has been developed to identify optimal mitigation strategies that minimize COVID-19 infection cases while reducing economic and other negative implications. We compared the optimal mitigation strategies identified by the MPEA-DE model with three baseline search strategies. The results show that MPEA-DE performs better than other baseline models based on prescription dominance.